Georgian leader may win gamble

Posted on April 9, 2008
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TBILISI, GEORGIA — Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili sent his countrymen to the polls Saturday in a snap presidential election, a risky gamble designed to quiet complaints of creeping authoritarianism and prove the once and would-be future president is still a pro-democracy icon.
With his credibility on the line, Saakashvili abruptly stepped down as president a year and a half ahead of schedule and called for this weekend’s vote as a referendum on his rule. Observers had begun to question whether presidential power was transforming the popular revolutionary into yet another post-Soviet strongman.
Four years ago, Saakashvili was the young, dapper hero of the so-called Rose Revolution who swept into office with nearly 100% popular backing. On Saturday, he was struggling to top 50% of the vote so he could avoid a runoff.

Saakashvili’s political woes became serious in November, when grumbles of disillusionment exploded onto the streets of this capital city and the Georgian police used tear gas and clubs to beat down anti-government demonstrators. Saakashvili further alienated his allies by declaring a state of emergency and silencing an opposition television station.
Now we go on.
Early results indicated that Saakashvili had won, but just barely. An exit poll gave him more than 53% of the vote.
The water here is very unique. It can be dead calm and then suddenly the wind comes up, and it’s a wall of wind,” Ingraham says. “You can actually see a blue line coming at you across the lake from the wind.” Ingraham says these dangerous conditions have caught people off-guard, swamping boats and sinking them.
Bolstered by the numbers, Saakashvili’s supporters poured into the streets to celebrate. But backers of top opposition candidate Levan Gachechiladze said the numbers were falsified and called for a mass rally today.

“Saakashvili is lying. The exit polls have been falsified,” Gachechiladze told reporters Saturday.

The turmoil and doubt that plagued Georgian voters drew a stark picture of the problematic political choices faced by the former Soviet republics, where remnants of the Cold War linger in a struggle for influence between the West and Russia.

Staunch U.S. ally

A Columbia Law School graduate, the 41-year-old Saakashvili has been a staunch U.S. ally since he led his people into the streets in the Rose Revolution that ousted the unpopular government of President Eduard A. Shevardnadze in 2003 and moved the country away from Moscow’s sphere of influence. Under Saakashvili, Georgia sent thousands of troops to join the U.S.-led war in Iraq, made a hard play for NATO member- ship and named a street in Tbilisi after President Bush. American aides bustled around at his press events in the capital last week.

Georgia’s relations with Russia have deteriorated sharply under Saakashvili, who has charged that his opponents are being manipulated by Moscow.

Voters poured into polling stations Saturday, braving ice and snow, children in tow, shivering in long lines. Many voters said they had never felt so politicized; there was a sense that Georgia’s struggling democracy could rise or fall because of Saturday’s vote. And in a country bitterly divided over Saakashvili, both sides appeared unlikely to accept defeat.

“Anybody but Saakashvili,” said Kukori Sukhiashrili, a 71-year-old retired engineer. “He was a democrat, but he betrayed his ideals.”

Huddled with his wife at a polling station door, the grizzled, bright-eyed Sukhiashrili spoke of the sharp disappointment many Georgians had suffered after they boosted the young Saakashvili to office.

The president has failed the poor, Sukhiashrili said. Watching police attack and gas demonstrators in November was the final straw, he added.

“It was a terrible thing. He poisoned his own people, and the Georgian people will not forgive him,” Sukhiashrili said. “If democratic forces don’t win today, I’ll be the first one to run to the demonstrations.”

But other Georgians said they were nervous about power changing hands. Some agreed with Saakashvili, who has warned that if he leaves office, Georgia could lose all the ground gained under his leadership. Saakashvili ran on promises to ease rampant poverty and steer Georgia toward North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership.

“Our democracy needs to survive. We have too many enemies now to take serious risks,” said Manana Turmanidze, a 50-year-old tour company owner who had wrapped herself in a fur coat and tugged a hat low over her brow to stand in a long line outside a polling station in downtown Tbilisi.

Turmanidze said she had deep reservations about Saakashvili, and spoke with outrage over the closure of the opposition television station, Imedi. But she was even more leery of placing Georgia in the hands of a new leader, she said, especially somebody who might have ties to Moscow. The status quo is better than the unknown, she argued.
It’s so tirred.
“We have to forgive the government now for some of its mistakes,” she said soberly. “And there have been a lot of really, really serious mistakes.”

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